Hype Cycles

If you're unfamiliar with what a hype cycle is: it's essentially a five step process that strategy consultants The Gartner Group use to characterise the over-enthusiasm (hype) that typically accompanies the introduction of new technologies.

It occurred to me that my life in research is one endlessly repeating personal hype cycle.

1. "Technology Trigger"
Gartner says:
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

Hot diggity! That semi-plausible theory I came up with in the bath is correct! It is possible to derive tissue specificity / regulatory potential / secondary structure from dinucleotide frequencies / a big-ass database / support vector machines / microarrays!

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
Gartner says:
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

My colleagues are complimentary. This is a Nature cover story for sure. Maybe now somebody will finally pay for me to fly first class somewhere nice in return for a keynote between Pina Coladas. I am a coding genius. Maybe I'll sit next to Lincoln Stein on the way there and give him some tips on Perl. And his haircut.

3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
Gartner says:
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

Stupid Nature. What do they know? Those twelve other papers just scratched the surface, my program has a better GUI and the logo is of a monkey smoking a pipe, what more do you want? If you ask me, "significant" is up for individual interpretation. Maybe I should start a blog.

4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
Gartner says:
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

What's this? Appearing in The Annals of Mongolian Medicine has drawn the attention of somebody who has actually used my program to do something useful. And they want to collaborate...

5. "Plateau of Productivity"
Gartner says:
A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

Neh, I got a paper out of it and some contacts, which is something to show for the last year. Eventually all the little pieces will come together and next year I'll get cited in one of the papers cited in the Nature Reviews cover story. And now, back to the bath...